Building a Mobile-based Public Opinion Survey in Africa

Mobile Phone SurveyIn my most recent post over at the Democracy in Africa blog, I argued that using mobile phones for political opinion polls would be an effective way of identifying voter fraud as well as providing feedback for political parties. My argument sought to use the ubiquity of mobile phones in Zimbabwe to overcome the lack of landlines needed to ‘traditional’ polling and the challenges of conducting in-person surveys in rural communities. Even though we know that not everyone owns or has access to a mobile phone, with penetration almost 100%, this medium made the most sense in order to capture the most complete sample of the prospective Zimbabwean voter. Still, understanding how those who own mobile phones are different from those that don’t will be important for the generalizability of the survey. Additionally, those that respond to an SMS based poll versus citizens that do not will likely need to be explored for the purposes of generalizing the results of the survey. With these questions in mind, I’ve expanded on the the model I described at DIA to a version that would incorporate more of these variables. Below are some additional factors to include in the survey:

Sample frame:

The target of the survey would be the 13 million mobile phone subscribers in Zimbabwe. With a population just around 13 million, it can be reasonable to assume that the majority of citizens have an active mobile phone. To draw a random sample of this group in order to conduct the survey, two methods could be undertaken:

Random digit dialing: After inputing the correct prefixes for cell numbers in Zimbabwe (71, 73, and 77) a machine can dial random phone numbers. This makes it easy to replace any disconnected or unused numbers with the next random phone number.

Sample frame from the Telecoms: After partnering with the three major providers in Zimbabwe (Econet, Telecel, and Net*One), a list can be compiled of the numbers that have been active in the past 30 days from which to randomly sample. However, with many users changing SIM cards as they travel, or to take advantage of better rates, the list of active lines may include some that belong to the same person.

Weighting the Sample:

To compensate for a survey that does not perfectly represent the entire country of Zimbabwe, weights can be added to response groups in order to match the proportions known in the population. As an example, oversampling Sindebele speakers (who are only around 15%) or urban residents (5 million of the 13 million in the country) could be reproportioned to compenstate. This would not help if the sample itself is unrepresentative, but for the purposes of this project, the sample of mobile users is assumed to be the best representative sample that can be achieved.

Pre-testing

To make sure that the survey was successful it would need at least one round of testing (a pilot program) to flesh out the right wording of the questions and the right incentive for response. Usually this is done by running the survey twice with only one difference in the implementation. One group could be asked about their ethnicity or language, and the other would not, in order to see if the overall response rate dropped because people were put off by the question. Other pilots could test the level of incentive needed to ensure a high response rate. Does 25c of airtime make it worth someone’s time?

Finally, what information people are told about the survey before they participate will be crucial to gauge. While Americans are used to pollsters calling for their opinion and assume that their anonymity will be protected, this can not be said around the world. Does Billboard in Mozambiquea public campaign need to be undertaken? Can a SMS with a url link to a website do the trick? Understanding what information is needed by those surveyed to have enough trust in order to respond will be one of the most crucial steps taken.

Conclusion:

With these factors in mind, the formation of a mobile-based public opinion survey in Zimbabwe could be begun. Generalizability will be a crucial component for this survey as it’s likely to be one of the most critiqued factors. Those that respond to the survey could be   less fearful that their answers might offend the security regime, and thus more likely to be ZANU-PF supporters. Conversely, those that do not own mobile phones are more likely to be poor and rural citizens, and are a group that ZANU-PF has consistently targeted for electoral support. These plus other factors need to be overcome by the structure of the final form of the survey in order to produce a non-response rate of less than 30%. Any more and there’s no chance of generalizing about the voting habits of the Zimbabwean populace. Despite fine tuning the sample frame, correctly weighting the demographics, or identifying the right incentive, Zimbabweans may still be resistant to mobile polling. If the risks perceived by a voter in revealing their political preference cannot be assuaged by those conducting the survey, then high measurement error will likely result.

Despite the challenges and difficulties in achieving a proper survey, there is a clear social benefit provided to the Zimbabwean people. Polling allows a population to give instant feedback to political parties and candidates during elections. While the United States has become obsessed with polling to the point of superfluousness, citizens are able to indicate their preferences at various times, rather than just through a one-off election. Additionally, election monitors can use the trends of polling to provide a more accurate assessment of whether elections have been rigged or manipulated. If monitors know that Province A had been trending support of 60% for candidate A but in the election candidate B receives 70% of the vote, a red flag can be triggered and thus alert monitors to further investigate the results. Without knowing pre-election opinions, no one can be certain if the populace truly voted the way they did.

Democracy is at a standstill in Africa despite recent headlines. Technology will not be a democratizing agent on its own. However, if used in certain circumstances to improve accountability, transparency, or connectivity, we should embrace the chance help consolidate existing republics as well as bringing forth more democratic regimes in Africa.

Flag Map of Zimbabwe

This article is an addendum to an article posted on Democracy in Africa

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Africa’s Technological Potential

I recently discussed ICT in Africa with practioners in the field during a recent morning, and had a realization shortly after about why I have a passion for Africa and for ICT. Because it can be hard to talk about my interest in the continent, I usually brush the question off on ‘Why Africa?’.

I’ve realized since the beginning of my interest, that for a young white male American to have an fixation on the continent is a fact many people find perplexing. African Studies on a whole is a threatened discipline in the United States, and I certainly don’t give off the vibe that I believe most people expect an Africanist to exude.

Another European Church

I’ve often told people that, having been taken to nearly every castle and church in western and eastern Europe as a child by my parents that I wanted something new to explore as I grew older. While it makes seem like Africa was just something to study, in reality it initially was a process of elimination (I had no interest in Asian studies, I didn’t feel I spoke enough Spanish to take up Latin American studies, and saw little future as an American specialist). However, since then, the interest that I hold in the continent has grown into a passion. It is still hard to describe why the passion exists, but I realized what captivates me about the continent: its potential.

Working in the tech industry in Los Angeles exposed me to a huge cross-section of society each day. It has been an eye opening experience to interact with different people from various socio-economic and cultural backgrounds. I’ve been able to see how there is a universal joy when it comes to using certain pieces of technology, or discovering a new way to do the things easier with technology. However, I’ve also seen a perplexing amount of trepidation, hesitation, and disinterest in the uses of technology. While this might mean you conjure up an image of an elderly American, in fact, just as many young people fail to get the most out of their technology. And when we as Americans do utilize our technology it often serves as a purpose for distraction or entertainment.

I see this hesitation and fear of learning the by-product of the Microsoft-led PC-era, where IT departments were set up to support to a workforce that was forced to embrace technology, rather than empower the users. Still, using computers was seen as dull and monotonous. This relatively forgotten video makes the best critique of the era of the Personal Computer.

While the term ‘nerd’ is no longer in vogue, the pejorative nature of the term has lost some of its cultural significance. However, I believe this lingering stereotype has still impacted the willingness of people to dive into and explore new technology. Technology is increasing being used not only to solve old problems and processes, but allow us to think and imagine in new ways. With this potential, why are there people who call themselves ‘tech-illiterate’. I think of that as an excuse used by people to excuse them from learning. Why would anyone want an excuse to not learn?! Learning is one of the most enjoyable, rewarding, and fulfilling joys of life.

The classic modern/traditional ICT picture

The potential that Africa possesses is the fact that it avoided this debilitating PC-era. There is unlikely anyone on the continent who would describe themselves as ‘not tech-literate’. This term isn’t acceptable. For example for many, the ability to use a mobile phone to conduct your business, to send money, to receive money is crucial to their lives. This reality is not realized by many in the west who are able to coast along on legacy processes and technology.

This is where Africa’s potential gives it the greatest competitive advantage in the world. If you were to hand a multi-touch tablet to a young African, rich or poor, he or she has unlikely used or owned one before. Yet, the ability to touch, manipulate, and input data with their fingers would be extremely intuitive, just as with any young person around the world. The reason is many of the adults of the continent have lacked access to personal computers. While PC-penetration has skyrocketed in the past decade, there’s no institutional memory of using unnatural data inputs like a mouse and keyboard that exists like there does in Europe and the United States.

The uses and applications for technology in Africa are part of the final piece of the potential that I see. When I see how parents are increasingly using technology as a substitute for parenting or conversation in the US, I wonder whether this is setting the child up for success, or crippling his or her ability to have the skills to one day apply their creativity in designing new technology. While there’s nothing inherently wrong with games or social networking apps, if it is taking the place of opportunities to build skills that foster creativity: group collaboration, critical thinking, or problem solving, I fear that the future will not meet its potential. While its amazing to watch a child pick up the nuances of Cut the Rope, I wonder what this is teaching them.

I see the applications being made on the continent as being more about solving the problems that have inhibited Africa’s growth which means overcoming certain logistical, budgetary, or geographical problems. While not all of them are going to be as meaningful or well promoted as those from Apps4Africa, I believe the upbringing that is experienced by a majority of Africans will cause them to focus on creating technology that will continue Africa’s trajectory of growth and property, rather than the first African killer app being an addictive game.

This possibility of technology to have a positive and significant impact on development on the continent is what drives my current passion. Seeking out opportunities to increase these possibilities for change and growth in Africa is the mission I’ve adopted. Handing a mobile phone to someone is not going to instantly bring about growth, improved health, and good governance. People need to be able to make the apps and services that will do these things.There needs to be local content and cultural relevance for any ICT product that wishes to succeed. Developers need to be in touch with culture, society, and the history of the people who are the target audience for their app, or their hardware. This is where the melding of the humanities with the tech industry can serve to propel development on the continent.

The knowledge of an area’s history, politics, and culture can be the difference maker when it comes to providing and applying technological solutions. Without it, you fail to understand your potential customers and the market as a whole. While we would like to believe that globalization is making all those who use technology into a homogenous culture of YouTube watchers, Netflix renters, and App downloaders, the underpinnings of culture will provide obstacles for those who seek to enter new markets into the foreseeable future.

Africa’s underdevelopment has hindered progress in many areas. However, for once, the lack of a PC-culture on the continent may provide a unexpected advantage. With the future in mobile technology, and in new, more intuitive interfaces, Africa has the long-term advantage. With technology being seen as a gateway to prosperity on the continent, it will not be long until Africa out innovates the world.

African Weeks in Review 24 Feb – 9 March

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#kony2012 calls on white westerns to get involved without much of the facts. South Africa apologizes for keeping their citizens protected from disease carrying foreigners, and Mamelodi Sundowns believe no lead is every safe! Continue reading

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AWIR: 18-24 February

With all eyes focused on Sunday’s elections in Senegal there was much build up this week on the continent and also in foreign news sources about the causes of the impasse currently facing Senegalese politicians. Also, this week in Africa there was still much coverage of the Africa Cup of Nations with analysis from the fall out from Zambia’s win at the Africa Cup of Nations. Additionally, how South Africa may no longer be the ‘Gateway to Africa’, the poor performance of South African teams on the continent, and the EASSy submarine cable takes a nick, but keeps on ticking. These stories and more are in this week’s African Week in Review below:

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